Bitcoin experiences frequent price declines around 10 a.m. ET, coinciding with the NYSE opening, due to a noted pattern of high trading volume, liquidity hunting, and potential high-frequency trading strategies rather than proven manipulation by a single entity. This behavior, observed consistently since early November 2025 and reportedly in Q2/Q3, involves rapid sell-offs erasing prior gains, pushing prices into liquidation zones, followed by partial recoveries—often within the first hour. While macro factors like November's $18,000 drop amid risk-off sentiment contribute, the timing aligns with U.S. equity flows influencing crypto via ETF
Jane Street Speculation
Social media analysts and zerohedge highlight Jane Street, a top high-frequency trader holding $2.5 billion in BlackRock's IBIT ETF (its fifth-largest position), as a suspect for daily dumps to accumulate BTC cheaper. The alleged playbook—sell at open, trigger liquidations, repurchase lower, repeat—fits HFT tactics exploiting ETF opacity, unlike traceable on-chain trades. No official confirmation or regulatory action ties Jane Street directly to this; claims remain unverified speculation amplified on platforms like X and Reddit.
Alternative Factors
Liquidity and Volume Surge: U.S. market open spikes activity, amplifying leveraged position liquidations (e.g., $171M longs wiped in one weekend dip).
ETF Correlations: Spot BTC ETFs like IBIT see heavy flows tied to stock hours, with broader TradFi buying dips post-November crash.
Macro Overlaps: Declines coincide with risk aversion, ignoring bullish news like MicroStrategy buys, but counterexamples exist where BTC rose at open.
Patterns like this reflect crypto's maturing ties to traditional markets, not isolated manipulation, though regulatory gaps (e.g., no crypto wash trading bans) fuel suspicions. Once accumulation eases, upward trends may resume per analysts.
No comments:
Post a Comment