Australian Employment Data Crushes Expectations: #EURAUD Bearish Surge Analysis
Australia's December 2025 jobs report, released early on January 22, 2026, obliterated forecasts and ignited a fierce AUD rally that crushed #EURAUD to 1.7179 lows. Employment soared +65.2K against expectations of +28.3K (prior -28.7K), unemployment locked steady at 4.1% versus predicted 4.2%, and trade balance vaulted to 6.98B AUD from 4.96B—a textbook hawkish jolt for the Aussie dollar.
Data Breakdown
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures confirmed a seven-month low unemployment rate of 4.1%, powered by 54.8K-55K full-time job additions and participation surging to 66.7%. This dramatic turnaround from prior contraction slashes RBA rate-cut odds while fueling speculation of policy tightening amid persistent inflation pressures. Commodity tailwinds like rising iron ore prices amplify the AUD's structural strength.
#EURAUD Technical Reaction
Post-release, #EURAUD shed ~0.63% intraday, slicing through 1.7287 support to hit 1.7160 lows before stabilizing near 1.718. The move unfolded as a classic bearish Marubozu on daily timeframes, with H4 RSI dipping to 38 signaling oversold conditions but no immediate reversal. Current action tests 1.7150 minor support within a down-channel from January's 1.7596 peak; 50-day MA at ~1.74 remains far overhead. Upside resistance clusters at 1.7250-1.7350, where sellers previously dominated.
Fundamental Drivers
The payroll beat widens yield differentials, pushing AUD rates to 4.36% against EUR's sub-3% levels amid ECB's ongoing dovish pivot. RBA's data-responsive stance now tilts hawkish, contrasting Eurozone PMI weakness and subdued growth. Global risk appetite bolsters AUD as a commodity proxy, though elevated US yields pose a potential ceiling. Expect heightened volatility into RBA minutes.
Key Trading Levels
Timeframe Support Pivot Resistance
1H 1.7160 1.7225 1.7290
H4 1.7100 1.7250 1.7350
Daily 1.7000 1.7450 1.7600
Target short #EURAUD entries on 1.7200-1.7220 retracements, aiming for 1.7100 (first target) and 1.7000 extension with stops above 1.7300 for 1:2.5 risk-reward. Bullish AUD setups dominate through Q1 if RBA holds firm, potentially probing 1.6800 by March. Watch Eurozone inflation data Friday for any short-term EUR bounce, but the jobs tsunami favors sustained downside pressure. This release dispels slowdown fears, cementing AUD outperformance versus EUR.
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