Bitcoin Price Analysis ($50k on the horizon!): How Institutional Liquidity Caused the Recent Crypto Market Dump

CLICK HERE FOR  SERVICES &OFFERS

 

A couple of weeks ago when Bitcoin appeared to have Resumed the Bullish Run, I warned in an earlier post of the possibility of the Sudden Bid in Bitcoin and  the Crypto markets being an inducement by institutional players to Lure in Impatient and Unsuspecting Traders. 

    At the time bitcoin appeared to be making a recovery, having surmounted the 95,000 handle. Nevertheless, it was clear the pair from the charts that there was very huge liquidity pool resting at the 80,000 Region . This was just too attractive for the Institutional players to ignore.

   Consequently the price of Bitcoin careened towards the 98,000, handle and Turned Down sharply Liquidating lots of weak positions as expected.

The tell tale signs however, were there as Bitcoin price was capped by key moving Averages on the Daily and four hour time frames. A hint any trader worth their weight in gold would never have missed.

Currently the Crypto pair hovers around the 69,000 handle having found bid at the 60,000 handle which corresponds to the lower end of a weekly order Block.. That being said , we may not be ready yet for the Long Awaited rally and price of Bitcoin May eventually Drop as far as 50k handle hence any rally before this Objective is met I'll treat as a Dead Cat bounce that needs to be confirmed before going Long on the Coin.

 Australian Employment Data Crushes Expectations: #EURAUD Bearish Surge Analysis

Australia's December 2025 jobs report, released early on January 22, 2026, obliterated forecasts and ignited a fierce AUD rally that crushed #EURAUD to 1.7179 lows. Employment soared +65.2K against expectations of +28.3K (prior -28.7K), unemployment locked steady at 4.1% versus predicted 4.2%, and trade balance vaulted to 6.98B AUD from 4.96B—a textbook hawkish jolt for the Aussie dollar.

​

Data Breakdown

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures confirmed a seven-month low unemployment rate of 4.1%, powered by 54.8K-55K full-time job additions and participation surging to 66.7%. This dramatic turnaround from prior contraction slashes RBA rate-cut odds while fueling speculation of policy tightening amid persistent inflation pressures. Commodity tailwinds like rising iron ore prices amplify the AUD's structural strength.

#EURAUD Technical Reaction

Post-release, #EURAUD shed ~0.63% intraday, slicing through 1.7287 support to hit 1.7160 lows before stabilizing near 1.718. The move unfolded as a classic bearish Marubozu on daily timeframes, with H4 RSI dipping to 38 signaling oversold conditions but no immediate reversal. Current action tests 1.7150 minor support within a down-channel from January's 1.7596 peak; 50-day MA at ~1.74 remains far overhead. Upside resistance clusters at 1.7250-1.7350, where sellers previously dominated.

Fundamental Drivers

The payroll beat widens yield differentials, pushing AUD rates to 4.36% against EUR's sub-3% levels amid ECB's ongoing dovish pivot. RBA's data-responsive stance now tilts hawkish, contrasting Eurozone PMI weakness and subdued growth. Global risk appetite bolsters AUD as a commodity proxy, though elevated US yields pose a potential ceiling. Expect heightened volatility into RBA minutes.

Key Trading Levels

Timeframe Support Pivot Resistance

       1H          1.7160  1.7225    1.7290

       H4           1.7100   1.7250    1.7350

     Daily           1.7000    1.7450    1.7600

Pro Trading Strategy

Target short #EURAUD entries on 1.7200-1.7220 retracements, aiming for 1.7100 (first target) and 1.7000 extension with stops above 1.7300 for 1:2.5 risk-reward. Bullish AUD setups dominate through Q1 if RBA holds firm, potentially probing 1.6800 by March. Watch Eurozone inflation data Friday for any short-term EUR bounce, but the jobs tsunami favors sustained downside pressure. This release dispels slowdown fears, cementing AUD outperformance versus EUR.

Click this Link for more

​

​

BITCOIN APPEARS READY TO RALLY AFTER CRITICAL PULLBACK TO 80K

 Bitcoin as well as other Alt currencies crashed fiercely for the Past couple of weeks with a liquidation across the crypto space of upwards of 500 billion USD . 

   This Fantastic crash in bitcoin came unexpectedly to some Traders who had hoped that a break of 120kUSD would have seen the stellar crpto currency heading Towards the 150K Mark. However, this was not the case as Bitcoin price action reversed Sharply at the 125kusd handle leaving Many traders stunned and most Liquidated.

   The drop persisted and the pair is currently  finding support at the 80kusd Support. Having broken Trendline on the weekly timeframe.

Should this support continue to hold and the current upward momentum sustained, we could

see a retest of weekly fair value gap formed between the 96k to 98k level which also coincides with the retest of the broken trendline and 38.2% fibonacci level of the move from 125500k to 80,800 handle. This could be a very good opportunity to go long and join the Upward Long term trend with prospects of very Decent profit on the Buy side.

Click here to learn to trade in 7days and Join the Mentorship

 

BITCOIN PRICE MANIPULATIONS

Bitcoin experiences frequent price declines around 10 a.m. ET, coinciding with the NYSE opening, due to a noted pattern of high trading volume, liquidity hunting, and potential high-frequency trading strategies rather than proven manipulation by a single entity. This behavior, observed consistently since early November 2025 and reportedly in Q2/Q3, involves rapid sell-offs erasing prior gains, pushing prices into liquidation zones, followed by partial recoveries—often within the first hour. While macro factors like November's $18,000 drop amid risk-off sentiment contribute, the timing aligns with U.S. equity flows influencing crypto via ETF

Jane Street Speculation

Social media analysts and zerohedge highlight Jane Street, a top high-frequency trader holding $2.5 billion in BlackRock's IBIT ETF (its fifth-largest position), as a suspect for daily dumps to accumulate BTC cheaper. The alleged playbook—sell at open, trigger liquidations, repurchase lower, repeat—fits HFT tactics exploiting ETF opacity, unlike traceable on-chain trades. No official confirmation or regulatory action ties Jane Street directly to this; claims remain unverified speculation amplified on platforms like X and Reddit.

Alternative Factors

Liquidity and Volume Surge: U.S. market open spikes activity, amplifying leveraged position liquidations (e.g., $171M longs wiped in one weekend dip).

ETF Correlations: Spot BTC ETFs like IBIT see heavy flows tied to stock hours, with broader TradFi buying dips post-November crash.

Macro Overlaps: Declines coincide with risk aversion, ignoring bullish news like MicroStrategy buys, but counterexamples exist where BTC rose at open.

Patterns like this reflect crypto's maturing ties to traditional markets, not isolated manipulation, though regulatory gaps (e.g., no crypto wash trading bans) fuel suspicions. Once accumulation eases, upward trends may resume per analysts.

#AUDJPY THE MONEY MAKER!

        The AUDJPY on Tuesday Failed to make a daily close above the 85.930 handle, a rather significant Level, and has since made more than a 100 pips drop From previous day's high breaking down through the low. 
The upward move having been capped by the 200 exponential moving average on the Four (4) Hour and Daily time frames respectively. The AUDJPY met with a confluence of resistances as the +1/8 and +2/8 Murrey math levels Corroborated the Stance of the Exponential Moving average on the Four hour timeframe.


Having Reached the third support level of Daily pivot the pair appears to be in a mild pullback and we may see a retest of the 85.300 level before any Impulsive move or bearish continuation. The third pivot support also coincides with the lower bound of the Ascending channel on the 4hr time frame.

In the near term on bearish continuation I expect  a move down to the 84.370 handle which coincides with  the 0/8 murrey math level on both the 4hr and daily time frames respectively. A successful breach and close below which level will coincide with a break of the weekly trendline  opening the floor for a move down to the 83.660 region. My bias for the pair right now is predominantly bearish.

     However, A daily close above the 85.350 level and we may be looking at a bullish Sentiment.

Other pairs on the Rader are  Bearish:GBPCAD, EURCAD, EURNZD And GBPNZD.   Bullish: None. 

BUY STOP USDCAD(1.25660 S.LOSS 1.25232); DOLLAR STRENGHT KICKS INTO THE FRAY.

     The USD gained Strenght across the board as the GBP plagued by brexit rhetorics failed to sustain the initial bullish move.

   GBPCAD failing for the second time to close/breech the downward trend line, Monday's daily candle forming a grave stone doji off the downward trend line and hovering just above support at 1.65220. 

       The USDCAD however, rising from ascending trend line on daily, has breeched the 1.2550 level which coincides with a breech of the descending trendline on daily time frame. Will it hold?

   weekly stochastic levels show a bullish momentum  while daily stochastic levels in consonance posts a bullish momentum reversal lending credence to dollar strenght. on the 4hr time frame, the average directional moving index indicates strong bullish build up.

  However, the murrey math levels on the 4hr time frame warn of an Arthritic up move or failure from here depending on daily close, as price has just come up against the 8/8,+1/8 and +2/8 murrey math level consecutively in close proximity. a confluence of resistances.

   Notwithstanding, should we get a significant daily close above the daily trendline and 1.25560 level. we might be getting a move towards 1.27550 level in days or weeks to come.

   In the news the USD strenght appeared to have spurned from John Taylor's Trump favored purported candidacy as likely chairman of the federal reserve.

  

GBPCHF:POUND BULLS RESURRECTED.

       Pound bulls got a lift, as talks of a somewhat gradual vs hard brexit appear to impress investors.

 Across board the GBP appreciated against most other pairs. The GBPCHF providing the most bullish prospects.on the daily time frame, the GBPCHF posted a series of price action signals, a series of inside bar pin bars and a bullish fakey combination. 

The GBPCHF made a reverse right off of the daily ascending trendline and lower rising channel.

  

 On the 4hr time frame, downward movement was curtailed by the 200 Exponential moving average and a failure to close significantly below the ascending trendline.

   A break above the high of the previous day's candle or 1.29570 level could see the GBPCHF end the week at 1.30640 the +7/8 murrey math level. The NZDCHF and GBPJPY also present good bullish prospects.